the yahngorithm
← board
Oklahoma State
Big 12
10
@
Tulsa
American Athletic
24
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPNU · Chapman Stadium
Market spreadOKST -13
Market total57.5
Model spreadOKST -10.5
Edge+2.5

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel OKST -10.5
market OKST -13  ·  edge +2.5 (home)  ·  OKST +6.9 vs TLSA -6.1 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel OKST -9.2
market OKST -13  ·  edge +3.8 (home)  ·  OKST +5.8 vs TLSA -6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Tulsa. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
OKST+6.9—-1.1+5.8
TLSA-6.1—+0.1-6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

OKST expected
33.8
2.8 pts/poss
TLSA expected
23.3
1.9 pts/poss
Model total
57
market 57.5 · 24.4 poss, average pace
Edge
-0.5
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

extreme heatBoth teams100°F, feels 107°, 35% RH
Kickoff "feels like" 100°F+ (heat index — and the field runs hotter still). Second-half legs and depth matter more; offenses tend to bog down late. Small lean UNDER. Affects both teams.
revengeOklahoma Statelost by 7helps OKST
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

OKSTTLSA
ATS overall1-11-1
ATS at home1-01-0
ATS on the road0-10-1
ATS as favorite0-10-1
ATS as underdog1-01-0
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss1-0–
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road0-11-0
Over / Under1O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (TLSA)Total
betmgm+13 -10857.5 -110
betonlineag+12 -10357 -125
betrivers+13.5 -11258 -112
betus+13 -11058 -110
bovada+13 -11058 -115
draftkings+13.5 -11257.5 -118
fanduel+13.5 -11057.5 -115
lowvig+12 +10557 -124
mybookieag+13.5 -11057.5 -110

Best TLSA number +13.5 · best OKST number -12. Best over 57 · best under 58. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 2:31 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TLSA's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 24.

Prediction market · Kalshi

OKST1%
TLSA99%▲ 81.2
Implied lineTLSA -31.4
Volume3023k
Open interest1713k
Traded 24h2481k

Kalshi's market prices TLSA to win 99% — about TLSA -31.4 vs the book's OKST -13. 44.4-pt gap — the market rates TLSA higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.