the yahngorithm
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North Alabama
UAC · FCS
14
@
Arkansas
SEC
31
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · SEC Network · Razorback Stadium
Market spreadARK -40.5
Market total63.5
Model spreadARK -42.4
Edge+1.9

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ARK -42.4
market ARK -40.5  ·  edge +1.9  ·  UNA -34.3 vs ARK +5.6 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ARK -42.2
market ARK -40.5  ·  edge +1.7  ·  UNA -34.3 vs ARK +5.2 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Arkansas. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
UNA-34.3—0-34.3
ARK+5.6—-0.4+5.2

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UNA expected
7
0.6 pts/poss
ARK expected
46.1
4.1 pts/poss
Model total
53.1
market 63.5 · 22.5 poss, average pace
Edge
-10.4
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

extreme heatBoth teams99°F, feels 105°, 32% RH
Kickoff "feels like" 100°F+ (heat index — and the field runs hotter still). Second-half legs and depth matter more; offenses tend to bog down late. Small lean UNDER. Affects both teams.
lookaheadArkansasthen Utahhurts ARK
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UNAARK
ATS overall1-00-2
ATS at home–0-1
ATS on the road1-00-1
ATS as favorite–0-1
ATS as underdog1-00-1
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under0O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (ARK)Total
betmgm-40.5 -10863.5 -108
betrivers-41 -10862.5 -109
bovada-40.5 -11063 -110
draftkings-40.5 -11063.5 -105
fanduel-40.5 -11462.5 -115
lowvig-40.5 -13563.5 -120
mybookieag-40.5 -11063.5 -110

Best ARK number -40.5 · best UNA number +41. Best over 62.5 · best under 63.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 3:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ARK's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 16.

Prediction market · Kalshi

UNA1%
ARK99%▲ 1
Implied lineARK -31.4
Volume925k
Open interest906k
Traded 24h827k

Kalshi's market prices ARK to win 99% — about ARK -31.4 vs the book's ARK -40.5. 9.1-pt gap — the market rates UNA higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.