the yahngorithm
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Northern Illinois
Mountain West
0
@
22Iowa
Big Ten
40
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · BTN · Kinnick Stadium
Market spreadIOWA -31.5
Market total44.5
Model spreadIOWA -34.3
Edge+2.8

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel IOWA -34.3
market IOWA -31.5  ·  edge +2.8 (home)  ·  NIU -17.2 vs IOWA +14.6 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel IOWA -33.7
market IOWA -31.5  ·  edge +2.2  ·  NIU -17 vs IOWA +13.9 + 2.9 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Iowa. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
NIU-17.2—+0.2-17
IOWA+14.6—-0.7+13.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

NIU expected
7
0.6 pts/poss
IOWA expected
37.1
3.4 pts/poss
Model total
44.1
market 44.5 · 21.5 poss, average pace
Edge
-0.4
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

extreme heatBoth teams93°F, feels 102°, 57% RH
Kickoff "feels like" 100°F+ (heat index — and the field runs hotter still). Second-half legs and depth matter more; offenses tend to bog down late. Small lean UNDER. Affects both teams.
lookaheadIowathen Iowa Statehurts IOWA
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

NIUIOWA
ATS overall0-21-1
ATS at home0-11-1
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite–1-1
ATS as underdog0-2–
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss0-1–
W–L at home0-12-0
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under1O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (IOWA)Total
betmgm-31 -11044.5 -110
betonlineag-31 -11044.5 -110
betrivers-31.5 -11244.5 -109
betus-31 -11044.5 -115
bovada-31 -11544.5 -110
draftkings-31.5 -10544.5 -110
fanduel-30.5 -11544.5 -118
lowvig-31 -10644.5 -108
mybookieag-31.5 -11044.5 -110

Best IOWA number -30.5 · best NIU number +31.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 3:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from IOWA's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 24.

Prediction market · Kalshi

NIU1%
IOWA99%▲ 1.9
Implied lineIOWA -31.4
Volume843k
Open interest783k
Traded 24h720k

Kalshi's market prices IOWA to win 99% — about IOWA -31.4 vs the book's IOWA -31.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.