the yahngorithm
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Alcorn State
SWAC · FCS
3
@
Southern Miss
Sun Belt
49
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Market spreadUSM -19.5
Market total51.5
Model spreadUSM -16.5
Edge-3

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel USM -16.5
market USM -19.5  ·  edge -3 (away)  ·  ALCN -34.7 vs USM -20.7 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel USM -17.8
market USM -19.5  ·  edge -1.7  ·  ALCN -34.7 vs USM -19.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Southern Miss. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
ALCN-34.7—0-34.7
USM-20.7—+1.1-19.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

ALCN expected
18.2
1.5 pts/poss
USM expected
34.7
2.9 pts/poss
Model total
53
market 51.5 · 24 poss, average pace
Edge
+1.5
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

steamSouthern Miss2 pts in 2hhelps USM
The consensus spread made a fast, synchronized move toward this team across the books — a sign real money came in on them quickly.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

ALCNUSM
ATS overall0-11-1
ATS at home–1-0
ATS on the road0-10-1
ATS as favorite–1-0
ATS as underdog0-10-1
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under1O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (USM)Total
betmgm-20 -10851.5 -108
betonlineag-19 -15051.5 -125
betrivers-19.5 -10951 -110
bovada-20 -12051 -110
draftkings-20.5 -10551.5 -105
fanduel-19.5 -11451.5 -110
lowvig-19 -15051.5 -125
mybookieag–50.5 -110

Best USM number -19 · best ALCN number +20.5. Best over 50.5 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 4:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from USM's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 17.

Prediction market · Kalshi

ALCN1%
USM99%▲ 8.9
Implied lineUSM -31.4
Volume282k
Open interest245k
Traded 24h263k

Kalshi's market prices USM to win 99% — about USM -31.4 vs the book's USM -19.5. 11.9-pt gap — the market rates USM higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.