the yahngorithm
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Wyoming
Mountain West
13
@
Colorado State
Pac-12
35
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · USA Net · Canvas Stadium
Market spreadCSU -2.5
Market total46
Model spreadCSU -1.7
Edge-0.8

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel CSU -1.7
market CSU -2.5  ·  edge -0.8  ·  WYO -10.8 vs CSU -11.6 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel CSU -3.1
market CSU -2.5  ·  edge +0.6  ·  WYO -11.1 vs CSU -11.2 + 3.2 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Colorado State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
WYO-10.8—-0.3-11.1
CSU-11.6—+0.4-11.2

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.2 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

WYO expected
20.6
1.8 pts/poss
CSU expected
22.3
1.9 pts/poss
Model total
42.9
market 46 · 23.1 poss, average pace
Edge
-3.1
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

revengeColorado Statelost by 28 (rivalry)helps CSU
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

WYOCSU
ATS overall0-22-0
ATS at home0-12-0
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite0-12-0
ATS as underdog0-1–
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss0-1–
W–L at home1-02-0
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under1O–1U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (CSU)Total
betmgm-2.5 -11045.5 -110
betonlineag-2 -10446 -110
betrivers-2.5 -11746.5 -112
betus-2.5 -11046 -110
bovada-2.5 -11046 -110
draftkings-2.5 -10846.5 -108
fanduel-2.5 -12246.5 -105
lowvig-2.5 -10746 -108
mybookieag-2.5 -11046 -110

Best CSU number -2 · best WYO number +2.5. Best over 45.5 · best under 46.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 5:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from CSU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 26.

Prediction market · Kalshi

WYO1%
CSU99%▲ 40.2
Implied lineCSU -31.4
Volume1541k
Open interest908k
Traded 24h1522k

Kalshi's market prices CSU to win 99% — about CSU -31.4 vs the book's CSU -2.5. 28.9-pt gap — the market rates CSU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.