the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Old Dominion. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (ODU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -41.5 -112 | 52.5 +100 |
| betonlineag | -41 -120 | 52.5 -115 |
| betrivers | -41 -109 | 52.5 -113 |
| bovada | -41.5 -115 | 53 -110 |
| draftkings | -42.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 |
| fanduel | -41.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 |
| lowvig | -41 -120 | 52.5 -115 |
| mybookieag | -41 -110 | 52.5 -110 |
Best ODU number -41 · best NORF number +42.5. Best over 52.5 · best under 53.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 5:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ODU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 5:01 PM · dailyODU -41.3 (-42.5–-41)o/u 52.5 (52.5–53.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 3:30 PM · dailyODU -41 (-42–-40.5)o/u 52.5 (51–52.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyODU -41 (-42–-40.5)o/u 52.5 (51–52.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyODU -41 (-41.5–-40.5)o/u 52.5 (51.5–53.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyODU -41 (-41–-40.5)o/u 53 (52.5–53.5)8 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices ODU to win 99% — about ODU -31.4 vs the book's ODU -41.3. 9.8-pt gap — the market rates NORF higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 6:00 PMODU 99%1513k vol
- Sep 5, 6:30 PMODU 99%1622k vol
- Sep 5, 7:01 PMODU 98%2097k vol
- Sep 5, 7:30 PMODU 99%2369k vol
- Sep 5, 8:01 PMODU 99%2375k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 4:01 PM81°F (feels 87°)wind 5.5 g13precip 54%
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM77°F (feels 81°)wind 8.5 g14precip 42%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM72°F (feels 74°)wind 16 g24precip 11%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.