the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Utah State. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.1 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (USU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -15 -110 | 59.5 -105 |
| betonlineag | -15.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 |
| betrivers | -16.5 -112 | 59.5 -110 |
| bovada | -15.5 -110 | 59 -105 |
| draftkings | -15.5 -108 | 59.5 -112 |
| fanduel | -15.5 -112 | 58.5 -112 |
| lowvig | -15.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 |
| mybookieag | -15.5 -110 | 59 -110 |
Best USU number -15 · best IDST number +16.5. Best over 58.5 · best under 59.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 6:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from USU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 5:01 PM · dailyUSU -15.5 (-16.5–-15)o/u 59 (58.5–59.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 3:30 PM · dailyUSU -15.5 (-16.5–-14.5)o/u 59.5 (58.5–59.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyUSU -15.3 (-16.5–-14.5)o/u 59.5 (58.5–60.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyUSU -14.5 (-15.5–-14)o/u 60 (59.5–61.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyUSU -14 (-15.5–-13.5)o/u 61.5 (59.5–62.5)8 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices USU to win 1% — about IDST -31.4 vs the book's USU -15.5. 46.9-pt gap — the market rates IDST higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 7:30 PMUSU 53%394k vol
- Sep 5, 8:01 PMUSU 59%506k vol
- Sep 5, 8:30 PMUSU 67%798k vol
- Sep 5, 9:00 PMUSU 16%1203k vol
- Sep 5, 9:30 PMUSU 1%1757k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 4:01 PM85°F (feels 75°)wind 12.9 g20precip 0%
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM85°F (feels 74°)wind 14.9 g26precip 0%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM84°F (feels 74°)wind 13.3 g25precip 0%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.