the yahngorithm
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Arkansas State
Sun Belt
24
@
Memphis
American Athletic
42
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Market spreadMEM -10.5
Market total52.5
Model spreadMEM -14.4
Edge+3.9

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MEM -14.4
market MEM -10.5  ·  edge +3.9 (home)  ·  ARST -11.6 vs MEM +0.3 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MEM -14.1
market MEM -10.5  ·  edge +3.6 (home)  ·  ARST -11.6 vs MEM -0.2 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Memphis. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
ARST-11.6——-11.6
MEM+0.3—-0.5-0.2

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

ARST expected
22.1
1.9 pts/poss
MEM expected
36.5
3.1 pts/poss
Model total
58.6
market 52.5 · 23.8 poss, average pace
Edge
+6.1
model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

extreme heatBoth teams100°F, feels 105°, 35% RH
Kickoff "feels like" 100°F+ (heat index — and the field runs hotter still). Second-half legs and depth matter more; offenses tend to bog down late. Small lean UNDER. Affects both teams.
letdownMemphisbeat UNLVhurts MEM
Won an emotional game last week (rivalry or within 3 SP+ pts) and this week's opponent is 10+ SP+ pts weaker. Emotional hangover — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

ARSTMEM
ATS overall1-12-1 67%
ATS at home1-01-0
ATS on the road0-11-1
ATS as favorite1-01-0
ATS as underdog0-11-1
ATS after a win–1-1
ATS after a loss1-0–
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road0-11-1
Over / Under2O–0U2O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (MEM)Total
betmgm-10.5 -11052.5 -108
betonlineag-10 -11052 -120
betrivers-11 -11352.5 -112
betus-10 -11052 -110
bovada-10 -11552.5 -110
draftkings-10.5 -10852.5 -110
fanduel-10.5 -11252.5 -112
lowvig-10 -10352 -119
mybookieag-11 -11052.5 -110

Best MEM number -10 · best ARST number +11. Best over 52 · best under 52.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 6:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MEM's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 26.

Prediction market · Kalshi

ARST1%
MEM99%▲ 19.8
Implied lineMEM -31.4
Volume1743k
Open interest1305k
Traded 24h1650k

Kalshi's market prices MEM to win 99% — about MEM -31.4 vs the book's MEM -10.5. 20.9-pt gap — the market rates MEM higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.