the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Vanderbilt. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (VAN) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -28.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 |
| betrivers | -28.5 -112 | 58.5 -112 |
| bovada | -29 -110 | 58 -105 |
| draftkings | -29.5 -108 | 57.5 -118 |
| fanduel | -28.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 |
| mybookieag | – | 58.5 -110 |
Best VAN number -28.5 · best APSU number +29.5. Best over 57.5 · best under 58.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 6:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from VAN's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 5:01 PM · dailyVAN -28.5 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 58.3 (57.5–58.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 3:30 PM · dailyVAN -28.5 (-29–-28.5)o/u 59 (58.5–59.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyVAN -28.5 (-29–-28.5)o/u 59 (58.5–59.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyVAN -28.8 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 59 (58.5–59.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyVAN -29 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 59.5 (58.5–60.5)8 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices VAN to win 99% — about VAN -31.4 vs the book's VAN -28.5. 2.9-pt gap — the market rates VAN higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 7:01 PMVAN 97%688k vol
- Sep 5, 7:30 PMVAN 96%990k vol
- Sep 5, 8:01 PMVAN 97%1309k vol
- Sep 5, 8:30 PMVAN 99%1437k vol
- Sep 5, 9:00 PMVAN 99%1438k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 4:01 PM94°F (feels 101°)wind 1.6 g2precip 2%
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM99°F (feels 102°)wind 4.6 g6precip 10%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM97°F (feels 98°)wind 7.2 g10precip 10%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.