the yahngorithm
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Missouri State
Conference USA
0
@
8Texas A&M
SEC
50
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN · Kyle Field
Market spreadTA&M -39.5
Market total53.5
Model spreadTA&M -42.5
Edge+3

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel TA&M -42.5
market TA&M -39.5  ·  edge +3 (home)  ·  MOST -19.1 vs TA&M +20.9 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel TA&M -43
market TA&M -39.5  ·  edge +3.5 (home)  ·  MOST -18.4 vs TA&M +21.4 + 3.1 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Texas A&M. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
MOST-19.1—+0.7-18.4
TA&M+20.9—+0.5+21.4

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.1 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

MOST expected
7
0.6 pts/poss
TA&M expected
48.8
4 pts/poss
Model total
55.8
market 53.5 · 24.5 poss, average pace
Edge
+2.3
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

extreme heatBoth teams94°F, feels 100°, 46% RH
Kickoff "feels like" 100°F+ (heat index — and the field runs hotter still). Second-half legs and depth matter more; offenses tend to bog down late. Small lean UNDER. Affects both teams.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

MOSTTA&M
ATS overall1-12-0
ATS at home1-02-0
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite1-02-0
ATS as underdog0-1–
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss1-0–
W–L at home1-02-0
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (TA&M)Total
betmgm-38.5 -10853.5 -110
betonlineag-39.5 -11053.5 -110
betrivers-39 -11353 -113
betus-39 -11053.5 -110
bovada-38.5 -11052.5 -110
draftkings-38.5 -11253.5 -108
fanduel-39.5 -10553.5 -110
lowvig-39.5 -10653.5 -108
mybookieag-39 -11053.5 -110

Best TA&M number -38.5 · best MOST number +39.5. Best over 52.5 · best under 53.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 6:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TA&M's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 26.

Prediction market · Kalshi

MOST1%
TA&M99%
Implied lineTA&M -31.4
Volume1533k
Open interest1505k
Traded 24h1378k

Kalshi's market prices TA&M to win 99% — about TA&M -31.4 vs the book's TA&M -39.5. 8.1-pt gap — the market rates MOST higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.