the yahngorithm

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SE Louisiana

Southland · FCS

South Alabama

Sun Belt

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Hancock Whitney Stadium

Market spreadUSA -13.5

Market total53.5

Model spreadUSA -13.1

Edge-0.4

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel USA -13.1

market USA -13.5 · edge -0.4 · SELA -25.2 vs USA -14.6 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel USA -14

market USA -13.5 · edge +0.5 · SELA -25.2 vs USA -13.9 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes South Alabama. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

SELA-25.2——-25.2

USA-14.6—+0.7-13.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

SELA expected

21.6

1.9 pts/poss

USA expected

34.7

3 pts/poss

Model total

56.3

market 53.5 · 23 poss, average pace

Edge

+2.8

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

SELAUSA

ATS overall0-12-0

ATS at home–1-0

ATS on the road0-11-0

ATS as favorite–1-0

ATS as underdog0-11-0

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–1-0

W–L on the road0-10-1

Over / Under1O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (USA)	Total
betmgm	-13.5 -110	53.5 -115
betonlineag	-13.5 -110	54 -120
betrivers	-13.5 -114	53.5 -110
bovada	-14 -105	54 -105
draftkings	-13.5 -112	53.5 -110
fanduel	-13.5 -110	54.5 -110
lowvig	-13.5 -110	54 -120
mybookieag	-14 -110	53.5 -110

Best USA number -13.5 · best SELA number +14. Best over 53.5 · best under 54.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 6:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from USA's side.

Line movement

Sep 5, 5:01 PM · dailyUSA -13.5 (-14.5–-13.5)o/u 53.5 (53.5–54.5)8 books
Sep 5, 3:30 PM · dailyUSA -13.5 (-14–-13.5)o/u 53.5 (53.5–54.5)8 books
Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyUSA -13.5 (-14–-13.5)o/u 53.5 (53.5–54.5)8 books
Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyUSA -13.5 (-14–-13.5)o/u 53.5 (52.5–54.5)8 books
Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyUSA -13.5 (-14–-12.5)o/u 52.5 (52.5–53.5)7 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 5, 4:01 PM87°F (feels 95°)wind 4.5 g6precip 24%
Sep 5, 6:00 AM85°F (feels 96°)wind 4.7 g7precip 9%
Sep 4, 4:01 PM84°F (feels 92°)wind 6.4 g10precip 14%

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.