the yahngorithm
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Charleston Southern
OVC · FCS
0
@
Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
31
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Market spreadGASO -28.5
Market total51.8
Model spreadGASO -29.7
Edge+1.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel GASO -29.7
market GASO -28.5  ·  edge +1.2  ·  CHSO -38 vs GASO -10.8 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel GASO -30
market GASO -28.5  ·  edge +1.5  ·  CHSO -38.1 vs GASO -10.8 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Georgia Southern. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
CHSO-38—-0.1-38.1
GASO-10.8—0-10.8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

CHSO expected
8
0.7 pts/poss
GASO expected
37.7
3.2 pts/poss
Model total
45.6
market 51.8 · 23.3 poss, average pace
Edge
-6.1
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

steamGeorgia Southern1.5 pts in 2hhelps GASO
The consensus spread made a fast, synchronized move toward this team across the books — a sign real money came in on them quickly.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

CHSOGASO
ATS overall0-12-0
ATS at home–1-0
ATS on the road0-11-0
ATS as favorite–1-0
ATS as underdog0-11-0
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under0O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (GASO)Total
betmgm-28.5 -10851.5 -115
betonlineag-28.5 -11052 -120
betrivers-28 -11551.5 -112
bovada-28.5 -10552.5 -110
draftkings-28.5 -10851.5 -115
fanduel-28.5 -10651.5 -110
lowvig-28.5 -11052 -120
mybookieag-28.5 -11052 -110

Best GASO number -28 · best CHSO number +28.5. Best over 51.5 · best under 52.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 6:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from GASO's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.

Prediction market · Kalshi

CHSO1%
GASO99%▲ 5
Implied lineGASO -31.4
Volume59k
Open interest54k
Traded 24h50k

Kalshi's market prices GASO to win 99% — about GASO -31.4 vs the book's GASO -28.5. 2.9-pt gap — the market rates GASO higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.