the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Troy. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (TROY) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -16 -110 | 52.5 -112 |
| betonlineag | -16 -110 | 52.5 -120 |
| betrivers | -16.5 -112 | 53 -109 |
| betus | -16.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 |
| bovada | -16.5 -110 | 53 -110 |
| draftkings | -16.5 -110 | 52.5 -118 |
| fanduel | -15.5 -110 | 52.5 -112 |
| lowvig | -16 -106 | 52.5 -119 |
| mybookieag | -16 -110 | 52.5 -110 |
Best TROY number -15.5 · best SHSU number +16.5. Best over 52.5 · best under 53. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 6:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TROY's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 5:01 PM · dailyTROY -16.5 (-16.5–-15.5)o/u 52.5 (52.5–53)9 books
- Sep 5, 3:30 PM · dailyTROY -16.5 (-16.5–-16)o/u 52.5 (52.5–53.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyTROY -16.5 (-16.5–-16)o/u 52.5 (52.5–53.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyTROY -16.5 (-16.5–-16)o/u 52.5 (52.5–53.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyTROY -16.5 (-16.5–-16)o/u 53.5 (52.5–54.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 26.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices TROY to win 96% — about TROY -23.6 vs the book's TROY -16.5. 7.1-pt gap — the market rates TROY higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 7:01 PMTROY 78%311k vol
- Sep 5, 7:30 PMTROY 71%466k vol
- Sep 5, 8:01 PMTROY 84%587k vol
- Sep 5, 8:30 PMTROY 69%844k vol
- Sep 5, 9:00 PMTROY 96%1080k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 4:01 PM89°F (feels 95°)wind 3 g3precip 4%
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM89°F (feels 94°)wind 6.2 g8precip 7%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM90°F (feels 95°)wind 5.7 g11precip 11%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.