the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Middle Tennessee. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (MTSU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -22.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -22.5 -115 | 56.5 -105 |
| betrivers | -22.5 -110 | 55.5 -114 |
| bovada | -22.5 -110 | 56 -105 |
| draftkings | -22.5 -115 | 55.5 -112 |
| fanduel | -22.5 -110 | 55.5 -106 |
| lowvig | -22.5 -115 | 56.5 -105 |
| mybookieag | -22.5 -110 | 56 -110 |
Best over 55.5 · best under 56.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 6:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MTSU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 5:01 PM · dailyMTSU -22.5 (-22.5–-21.5)o/u 55.8 (55.5–56.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 3:30 PM · dailyMTSU -22.5 (-22.5–-21.5)o/u 56 (55.5–56.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyMTSU -22 (-22.5–-21.5)o/u 56 (55.5–57)8 books
- Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyMTSU -21.5 (-22.5–-21.5)o/u 56 (55.5–57)8 books
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyMTSU -21.5 (-22.5–-21)o/u 57.5 (55.5–58)7 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices MTSU to win 99% — about MTSU -31.4 vs the book's MTSU -22.5. 8.9-pt gap — the market rates MTSU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 11:00 PMMTSU 99%133k vol
- Sep 5, 11:30 PMMTSU 99%135k vol
- Sep 6, 12:00 AMMTSU 99%141k vol
- Sep 6, 12:30 AMMTSU 99%151k vol
- Sep 6, 1:00 AMMTSU 99%162k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 4:01 PM96°F (feels 100°)wind 4.8 g6precip 3%
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM97°F (feels 101°)wind 4.5 g7precip 5%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM97°F (feels 98°)wind 10.1 g14precip 4%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.