the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes South Florida. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (USF) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -14.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | -14.5 -107 | 53 -115 |
| betrivers | -14.5 -110 | 53 -113 |
| betus | -14.5 -110 | 53 -115 |
| bovada | -14.5 -105 | 53 -110 |
| draftkings | -14.5 -105 | 53.5 -105 |
| fanduel | -14.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 |
| lowvig | -14.5 -103 | 53 -114 |
| mybookieag | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 |
Best over 53 · best under 53.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 6:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from USF's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 5:01 PM · dailyUSF -14.5o/u 53 (53–53.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 3:30 PM · dailyUSF -14.5 (-14.5–-14)o/u 53 (53–53.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyUSF -14.5 (-14.5–-14)o/u 53 (53–53.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyUSF -14.5 (-15–-14.5)o/u 53 (52–53.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyUSF -14.5 (-15–-14.5)o/u 52.5 (51.5–53.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 26.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices USF to win 99% — about USF -31.4 vs the book's USF -14.5. 16.9-pt gap — the market rates USF higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 7:01 PMUSF 88%123k vol
- Sep 5, 7:30 PMUSF 85%187k vol
- Sep 5, 8:01 PMUSF 78%253k vol
- Sep 5, 8:30 PMUSF 95%431k vol
- Sep 5, 9:00 PMUSF 99%558k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 4:01 PM84°F (feels 93°)wind 5.5 g11precip 3%
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM84°F (feels 92°)wind 6 g13precip 4%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM84°F (feels 93°)wind 5.2 g10precip 5%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.