the yahngorithm
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Houston Christian
Southland · FCS
3
@
Rice
American Athletic
31
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Rice Stadium
Market spreadRICE -22.5
Market total47.5
Model spreadRICE -27.6
Edge+5.1

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel RICE -27.6
market RICE -22.5  ·  edge +5.1 (home)  ·  HCU -40.4 vs RICE -15.3 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel RICE -28.4
market RICE -22.5  ·  edge +5.9 (home)  ·  HCU -40.5 vs RICE -14.8 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Rice. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
HCU-40.4—-0.1-40.5
RICE-15.3—+0.5-14.8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

HCU expected
10.9
1 pts/poss
RICE expected
38.5
3.4 pts/poss
Model total
49.3
market 47.5 · 22.7 poss, average pace
Edge
+1.8
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

HCURICE
ATS overall0-11-1
ATS at home–1-0
ATS on the road0-10-1
ATS as favorite–1-0
ATS as underdog0-10-1
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under0O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (RICE)Total
betmgm-22.5 -11047.5 -110
betonlineag-22.5 -11547.5 -115
betrivers-23 -11348 -110
bovada-23 -11047.5 -110
draftkings-22.5 -11047.5 -112
fanduel-22.5 -11047.5 -110
lowvig-22.5 -11547.5 -115
mybookieag–47.5 -110

Best RICE number -22.5 · best HCU number +23. Best over 47.5 · best under 48. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 6:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from RICE's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.

Prediction market · Kalshi

HCU1%
RICE99%▲ 5.9
Implied lineRICE -31.4
Volume277k
Open interest221k
Traded 24h258k

Kalshi's market prices RICE to win 99% — about RICE -31.4 vs the book's RICE -22.5. 8.9-pt gap — the market rates RICE higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.