the yahngorithm

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Northwestern State

Southland · FCS

Louisiana Tech

Sun Belt

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Joe Aillet Stadium

Market spreadLT -44.5

Market total56.5

Model spreadLT -45.3

Edge+0.8

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel LT -45.3

market LT -44.5 · edge +0.8 · NWST -51.9 vs LT -9.1 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel LT -45.6

market LT -44.5 · edge +1.1 · NWST -51.8 vs LT -8.9 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Louisiana Tech. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

NWST-51.9—+0.1-51.8

LT-9.1—+0.2-8.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

NWST expected

0.6 pts/poss

LT expected

45.4

3.8 pts/poss

Model total

52.4

market 56.5 · 23.8 poss, average pace

Edge

-4.1

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

NWSTLT

ATS overall0-12-0

ATS at home–1-0

ATS on the road0-11-0

ATS as favorite–1-0

ATS as underdog0-11-0

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–1-0

W–L on the road0-10-1

Over / Under1O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (LT)	Total
betmgm	-44.5 -112	56.5 -110
betonlineag	-44.5 -125	56.5 -115
betrivers	-45 -109	56.5 -110
bovada	-45 -105	57 -110
draftkings	-44.5 -115	56.5 -112
fanduel	-45.5 +100	56.5 -110
mybookieag	-44.5 -110	55.5 -110

Best LT number -44.5 · best NWST number +45.5. Best over 55.5 · best under 57. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 6:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from LT's side.

Line movement

Sep 5, 5:01 PM · dailyLT -44.5 (-45.5–-44.5)o/u 56.5 (55.5–57)7 books
Sep 5, 3:30 PM · dailyLT -44.5 (-45.5–-44.5)o/u 56.5 (55.5–56.5)7 books
Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyLT -44.5 (-45.5–-44.5)o/u 56.5 (55.5–56.5)7 books
Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyLT -44.5 (-45.5–-44.5)o/u 56.5 (55.5–56.5)7 books
Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyLT -44.5o/u 56.5 (55.5–56.5)7 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.

Prediction market · Kalshi

NWST1%

LT99%

Implied lineLT -31.4

Volume1115k

Open interest1102k

Traded 24h1056k

Kalshi's market prices LT to win 99% — about LT -31.4 vs the book's LT -44.5. 13.1-pt gap — the market rates NWST higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 5, 7:30 PMLT 99%1113k vol
Sep 5, 8:01 PMLT 99%1114k vol
Sep 5, 8:30 PMLT 99%1115k vol
Sep 5, 9:00 PMLT 99%1115k vol
Sep 5, 9:30 PMLT 99%1115k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 5, 4:01 PM95°F (feels 99°)wind 9.8 g13precip 7%
Sep 5, 6:00 AM96°F (feels 99°)wind 8.7 g11precip 13%
Sep 4, 4:01 PM98°F (feels 100°)wind 9.8 g13precip 13%

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.