the yahngorithm
← board
Clemson
ACC
10
@
11LSU
SEC
51
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ABC · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Market spreadLSU -10
Market total49.5
Model spreadLSU -9.8
Edge-0.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel LSU -9.8
market LSU -10  ·  edge -0.2  ·  CLEM +13.1 vs LSU +20.4 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel LSU -10.4
market LSU -10  ·  edge +0.4  ·  CLEM +13.1 vs LSU +20.4 + 3.1 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes LSU. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
CLEM+13.1—0+13.1
LSU+20.4—0+20.4

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.1 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

CLEM expected
18
1.6 pts/poss
LSU expected
27.8
2.4 pts/poss
Model total
45.7
market 49.5 · 23.1 poss, average pace
Edge
-3.8
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

revengeClemsonlost by 7helps CLEM
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

CLEMLSU
ATS overall0-21-1
ATS at home0-11-1
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite0-11-1
ATS as underdog0-1–
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss0-1–
W–L at home1-02-0
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under1O–1U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (LSU)Total
betmgm-10 -10248.5 -120
betonlineag-9.5 -11449.5 -107
betrivers-10 -11049.5 -114
betus-10 -10549 -110
bovada-9.5 -12049 -115
draftkings-10 -11249.5 -110
fanduel-10.5 -10449.5 -108
lowvig-10 -10249.5 -105
mybookieag-10 -11049 -110

Best LSU number -9.5 · best CLEM number +10.5. Best over 48.5 · best under 49.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 6:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from LSU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 26.

Prediction market · Kalshi

CLEM1%
LSU99%▲ 21.8
Implied lineLSU -31.4
Volume11710k
Open interest8753k
Traded 24h11173k

Kalshi's market prices LSU to win 99% — about LSU -31.4 vs the book's LSU -10. 21.4-pt gap — the market rates LSU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.