the yahngorithm
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UL Monroe
Sun Belt
13
@
Mississippi State
SEC
62
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPNU · Davis Wade Stadium
Market spreadMSST -28.5
Market total54.5
Model spreadMSST -36.2
Edge+7.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MSST -36.2
market MSST -28.5  ·  edge +7.7 (home)  ·  ULM -28.9 vs MSST +4.8 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MSST -35.6
market MSST -28.5  ·  edge +7.1 (home)  ·  ULM -27.8 vs MSST +4.9 + 2.9 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Mississippi State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
ULM-28.9—+1.1-27.8
MSST+4.8—+0.1+4.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

ULM expected
10.8
0.9 pts/poss
MSST expected
47
3.8 pts/poss
Model total
57.8
market 54.5 · 24.5 poss, average pace
Edge
+3.3
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

extreme heatBoth teams97°F, feels 103°, 38% RH
Kickoff "feels like" 100°F+ (heat index — and the field runs hotter still). Second-half legs and depth matter more; offenses tend to bog down late. Small lean UNDER. Affects both teams.
lookaheadMississippi Statethen Minnesotahurts MSST
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

ULMMSST
ATS overall1-12-0
ATS at home–1-0
ATS on the road1-11-0
ATS as favorite–1-0
ATS as underdog1-1–
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss1-0–
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-21-0
Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (MSST)Total
betmgm-28.5 -11054.5 -105
betonlineag-28 -11054 -110
betrivers-28.5 -11054.5 -113
betus-28 -11054 -110
bovada-28.5 -11054.5 -110
draftkings-28.5 -10554.5 -105
fanduel-28.5 -10554.5 -110
lowvig-28 -10854 -108
mybookieag-28.5 -11054.5 -110

Best MSST number -28 · best ULM number +28.5. Best over 54 · best under 54.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 6:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MSST's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 26.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.