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Western Michigan
Mid-American
12
@
16Michigan
Big Ten
13
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · NBC · Michigan Stadium
Market spreadMICH -27.5
Market total49.5
Model spreadMICH -25.5
Edge-2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MICH -25.5
market MICH -27.5  ·  edge -2  ·  WMU -6 vs MICH +17 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MICH -25
market MICH -27.5  ·  edge -2.5 (away)  ·  WMU -5.2 vs MICH +17 + 2.9 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Michigan. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
WMU-6—+0.8-5.2
MICH+17—0+17

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

WMU expected
10.2
0.9 pts/poss
MICH expected
35.7
3.1 pts/poss
Model total
46
market 49.5 · 22.7 poss, average pace
Edge
-3.5
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadMichiganthen Oklahomahurts MICH
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

WMUMICH
ATS overall2-01-1
ATS at home1-01-1
ATS on the road1-0–
ATS as favorite1-00-1
ATS as underdog1-01-0
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss1-0–
W–L at home1-02-0
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under1O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (MICH)Total
betmgm-27.5 -11249.5 -108
betonlineag-27.5 -11551 -115
betrivers-27.5 -11349.5 -112
betus-27.5 -11550.5 -115
bovada-28 -11049.5 -105
draftkings-27.5 -11550.5 -112
fanduel-27.5 -11049.5 -112
lowvig-27.5 -11150.5 -114
mybookieag-27.5 -11049.5 -110

Best MICH number -27.5 · best WMU number +28. Best over 49.5 · best under 51. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 6:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MICH's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 26.

Prediction market · Kalshi

WMU49%
MICH51%▼ 44.6
Implied lineMICH -0.5
Volume9785k
Open interest6614k
Traded 24h8368k

Kalshi's market prices MICH to win 51% — about MICH -0.5 vs the book's MICH -27.5. 27.0-pt gap — the market rates WMU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.