the yahngorithm

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VMI

Southern · FCS

Virginia Tech

ACC

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ACC Network · Lane Stadium

Market spreadVT -54.5

Market total59.5

Model spreadVT -68

Edge+13.5

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel VT -68

market VT -54.5 · edge +13.5 (home) · VMI -56.9 vs VT +8.6 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel VT -68.5

market VT -54.5 · edge +14 (home) · VMI -57 vs VT +8.7 + 2.9 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Virginia Tech. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

VMI-56.9—-0.1-57

VT+8.6—+0.1+8.7

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

VMI expected

0.6 pts/poss

VT expected

42.1

3.7 pts/poss

Model total

49.1

market 59.5 · 22.7 poss, average pace

Edge

-10.4

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

VMIVT

ATS overall0-12-0

ATS at home–2-0

ATS on the road0-1–

ATS as favorite–2-0

ATS as underdog0-1–

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–2-0

W–L on the road0-1–

Over / Under1O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (VT)	Total
betmgm	-55 -110	58.5 -120
betonlineag	-54.5 -120	59 -125
betrivers	-54.5 -109	60.5 -114
bovada	-54.5 -110	62 +100
draftkings	-54.5 -108	60.5 -108
fanduel	-54.5 -110	61.5 -105
lowvig	-54.5 -120	59 -125
mybookieag	-54.5 -110	60.5 -110

Best VT number -54.5 · best VMI number +55. Best over 58.5 · best under 62. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 6:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from VT's side.

Line movement

Sep 5, 5:01 PM · dailyVT -54.5 (-55–-53.5)o/u 59.5 (58.5–62)8 books
Sep 5, 3:30 PM · dailyVT -54 (-54.5–-53.5)o/u 60 (59–62)8 books
Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyVT -54.5 (-54.5–-54)o/u 61.3 (60–62)8 books
Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyVT -54.5 (-55.5–-54)o/u 61.5 (60.5–62)8 books
Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyVT -55.5 (-55.5–-54.5)o/u 61.5 (60.5–62.5)8 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.

Prediction market · Kalshi

VMI1%

VT99%

Implied lineVT -31.4

Volume356k

Open interest332k

Traded 24h212k

Kalshi's market prices VT to win 99% — about VT -31.4 vs the book's VT -54.5. 23.1-pt gap — the market rates VMI higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 5, 8:01 PMVT 99%356k vol
Sep 5, 8:30 PMVT 99%356k vol
Sep 5, 9:00 PMVT 99%356k vol
Sep 5, 9:30 PMVT 99%356k vol
Sep 5, 10:00 PMVT 99%356k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 5, 4:01 PM82°Fwind 10.1 g17precip 3%
Sep 5, 6:00 AM84°F (feels 83°)wind 9.5 g15precip 11%
Sep 4, 4:01 PM83°F (feels 84°)wind 9.9 g20precip 10%

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.