the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Florida. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (FLA) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -26.5 -112 | 59.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | -25.5 -110 | 59 -115 |
| betrivers | -25.5 -113 | 59.5 -109 |
| betus | -25.5 -110 | 59 -110 |
| bovada | -25 -110 | 59.5 -115 |
| draftkings | -25.5 -115 | 59.5 -108 |
| fanduel | -24.5 -118 | 59.5 -105 |
| lowvig | -25.5 -106 | 59 -108 |
| mybookieag | -25.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 |
Best FLA number -24.5 · best FAU number +26.5. Best over 59 · best under 59.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 6:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from FLA's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 5:01 PM · dailyFLA -25.5 (-26.5–-24.5)o/u 59.5 (59–59.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 3:30 PM · dailyFLA -25.5 (-26.5–-24.5)o/u 59.5 (59–59.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyFLA -26.5 (-26.5–-24.5)o/u 59.5 (59–59.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyFLA -26.5 (-26.5–-26)o/u 59.5 (59–59.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 10:01 AM · dailyFLA -26.5o/u 59.5 (59–59.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 26.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices FLA to win 99% — about FLA -31.4 vs the book's FLA -25.5. 5.9-pt gap — the market rates FLA higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 8:01 PMFLA 99%793k vol
- Sep 5, 8:30 PMFLA 99%870k vol
- Sep 5, 9:00 PMFLA 99%878k vol
- Sep 5, 9:30 PMFLA 99%879k vol
- Sep 5, 10:00 PMFLA 99%880k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 4:01 PM83°F (feels 91°)wind 3.4 g8precip 12%
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM80°F (feels 90°)wind 3.4 g8precip 6%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM80°F (feels 90°)wind 3.2 g11precip 8%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.