the yahngorithm

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Lamar

Southland · FCS

Louisiana

Sun Belt

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Cajun Field

Market spreadUL -20.5

Market total48.5

Model spreadUL -12

Edge-8.5

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel UL -12

market UL -20.5 · edge -8.5 (away) · LAM -20.1 vs UL -10.6 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel UL -13.1

market UL -20.5 · edge -7.4 (away) · LAM -20.1 vs UL -9.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Louisiana. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

LAM-20.1—0-20.1

UL-10.6—+1-9.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

LAM expected

16.6

1.5 pts/poss

UL expected

28.6

2.5 pts/poss

Model total

45.2

market 48.5 · 22.8 poss, average pace

Edge

-3.3

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

LAMUL

ATS overall0-12-0

ATS at home–1-0

ATS on the road0-11-0

ATS as favorite–1-0

ATS as underdog0-11-0

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–1-0

W–L on the road0-10-1

Over / Under0O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (UL)	Total
betmgm	-20.5 -112	48.5 -110
betonlineag	-21 -120	48.5 -115
betrivers	-20.5 -110	49 -112
bovada	-20.5 -115	48.5 -110
draftkings	-20.5 -110	48.5 -112
fanduel	-20.5 -105	48.5 -112
lowvig	-21 -120	48.5 -115
mybookieag	–	48.5 -110

Best UL number -20.5 · best LAM number +21. Best over 48.5 · best under 49. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 7:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UL's side.

Line movement

Sep 5, 7:01 PM · dailyUL -20.5 (-21–-20.5)o/u 48.5 (48.5–49)8 books
Sep 5, 5:01 PM · dailyUL -20.5 (-21–-20.5)o/u 48.5 (48.5–49)8 books
Sep 5, 3:30 PM · dailyUL -20.5 (-21–-20.5)o/u 48.5 (48.5–49)8 books
Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyUL -20.5 (-20.5–-19)o/u 48.57 books
Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyUL -20.5 (-20.5–-19)o/u 48.57 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 19.

Prediction market · Kalshi

LAM1%

UL99%▲ 8.1

Implied lineUL -31.4

Volume122k

Open interest97k

Traded 24h114k

Kalshi's market prices UL to win 99% — about UL -31.4 vs the book's UL -20.5. 10.9-pt gap — the market rates UL higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 5, 8:01 PMUL 99%91k vol
Sep 5, 8:30 PMUL 99%113k vol
Sep 5, 9:00 PMUL 99%122k vol
Sep 5, 9:30 PMUL 99%122k vol
Sep 5, 10:00 PMUL 99%122k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 5, 4:01 PM79°F (feels 87°)wind 5.1 g9precip 24%
Sep 5, 6:00 AM80°F (feels 88°)wind 3.4 g8precip 18%
Sep 4, 4:01 PM80°F (feels 89°)wind 4 g5precip 18%

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.