the yahngorithm
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South Dakota State
MVFC · FCS
18
@
Northwestern
Big Ten
34
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · BTN · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
Market spreadNU -14
Market total49.5
Model spreadNU -6.2
Edge-7.8

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel NU -6.2
market NU -14  ·  edge -7.8 (away)  ·  SDST +1.4 vs NU +5.1 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel NU -7
market NU -14  ·  edge -7 (away)  ·  SDST +1.4 vs NU +5.7 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Northwestern. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
SDST+1.4—0+1.4
NU+5.1—+0.6+5.7

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

SDST expected
22.6
2.1 pts/poss
NU expected
28.8
2.7 pts/poss
Model total
51.4
market 49.5 · 21.7 poss, average pace
Edge
+1.9
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

steamNorthwestern1.5 pts in 1.5hhelps NU
The consensus spread made a fast, synchronized move toward this team across the books — a sign real money came in on them quickly.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

SDSTNU
ATS overall0-11-0
ATS at home–1-0
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite–1-0
ATS as underdog0-1–
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under1O–0U1O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (NU)Total
betmgm-14 -11049.5 -108
betonlineag-14 +10449.5 -120
betrivers-14 -11448.5 -110
bovada-13.5 -11549.5 -110
draftkings-14 +10049.5 -112
fanduel-13.5 -11549.5 -105
lowvig-14 +10449.5 -120
mybookieag-14.5 -11049.5 -110

Best NU number -13.5 · best SDST number +14.5. Best over 48.5 · best under 49.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 7:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from NU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 19.

Prediction market · Kalshi

SDST3%
NU97%▲ 16.6
Implied lineNU -25.4
Volume1723k
Open interest1202k
Traded 24h1336k

Kalshi's market prices NU to win 97% — about NU -25.4 vs the book's NU -14. 11.4-pt gap — the market rates NU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.