the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes BYU. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.1 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (BYU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -51.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -50.5 -125 | 62.5 -101 |
| betrivers | -51.5 -110 | 61.5 -114 |
| bovada | -49.5 -120 | 61.5 -105 |
| draftkings | -50.5 -115 | 61.5 -110 |
| fanduel | -51.5 -110 | 61.5 -112 |
| lowvig | -50.5 -125 | 62.5 -101 |
| mybookieag | -50 -110 | 61.5 -110 |
Best BYU number -49.5 · best UTU number +51.5. Best over 61.5 · best under 62.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 7:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from BYU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 7:01 PM · dailyBYU -50.5 (-51.5–-49.5)o/u 61.5 (61.5–62.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 5:01 PM · dailyBYU -50.5 (-51.5–-49.5)o/u 61.5 (61–62.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 3:30 PM · dailyBYU -50.5 (-51.5–-49.5)o/u 61.5 (61–62.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyBYU -50 (-51.5–-49.5)o/u 61.5 (61–62.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyBYU -50.3 (-51.5–-49.5)o/u 61.5 (61–62.5)8 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 19.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices BYU to win 99% — about BYU -31.4 vs the book's BYU -50.5. 19.1-pt gap — the market rates UTU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 8:01 PMBYU 99%268k vol
- Sep 5, 8:30 PMBYU 99%268k vol
- Sep 5, 9:00 PMBYU 99%269k vol
- Sep 5, 9:30 PMBYU 99%269k vol
- Sep 5, 10:00 PMBYU 99%269k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 4:01 PM88°F (feels 79°)wind 10.4 g16precip 0%
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM87°F (feels 78°)wind 12.7 g21precip 0%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM86°F (feels 76°)wind 15.5 g24precip 0%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.