the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes New Mexico State. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (NMSU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -28.5 -108 | 52.5 -102 |
| betonlineag | -29 -130 | 52.5 -120 |
| betrivers | -28.5 -110 | 52.5 -108 |
| bovada | -28.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 |
| draftkings | -29.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 |
| fanduel | -29.5 -108 | 52.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -29 -130 | 52.5 -120 |
| mybookieag | -29.5 -118 | 52.5 -118 |
Best NMSU number -28.5 · best MERC number +29.5. Best over 52.5 · best under 53.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 8:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from NMSU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 7:01 PM · dailyNMSU -29 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 52.5 (51.5–53.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 5:01 PM · dailyNMSU -29 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 52.5 (51.5–52.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 3:30 PM · dailyNMSU -29 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 52.5 (51.5–53)8 books
- Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyNMSU -29 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 52.5 (51.5–52.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyNMSU -29 (-29.5–-28.5)o/u 52.5 (51.5–52.5)8 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 19.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices NMSU to win 99% — about NMSU -31.4 vs the book's NMSU -29. 2.4-pt gap — the market rates NMSU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 9:30 PMNMSU 93%379k vol
- Sep 5, 10:00 PMNMSU 94%441k vol
- Sep 5, 10:30 PMNMSU 99%614k vol
- Sep 5, 11:00 PMNMSU 99%707k vol
- Sep 5, 11:30 PMNMSU 99%709k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 4:01 PM92°F (feels 90°)wind 5.3 g7precip 7%
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM92°Fwind 3 g4precip 8%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM83°F (feels 84°)wind 8.5 g12precip 11%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.