the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes San Diego State. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (SDSU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -38.5 -110 | 61.5 -105 |
| betonlineag | -38.5 -115 | 61 -120 |
| betrivers | -41 -112 | 62 -109 |
| bovada | -38.5 -105 | 60.5 -115 |
| draftkings | -38.5 -115 | 61.5 -110 |
| fanduel | -38.5 -118 | 61.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -38.5 -115 | 61 -120 |
| mybookieag | -38.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 |
Best SDSU number -38.5 · best PRST number +41. Best over 60.5 · best under 62.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 8:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from SDSU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 7:01 PM · dailySDSU -38.5 (-41–-38.5)o/u 61.5 (60.5–62.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 5:01 PM · dailySDSU -39.5 (-40.5–-38.5)o/u 62.5 (62–62.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 3:30 PM · dailySDSU -40 (-40.5–-39.5)o/u 62.5 (62–62.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailySDSU -40 (-40.5–-39.5)o/u 62.5 (62–62.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailySDSU -40.5 (-40.5–-39.5)o/u 62.5 (62–62.5)8 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 19.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices SDSU to win 99% — about SDSU -31.4 vs the book's SDSU -38.5. 7.1-pt gap — the market rates PRST higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 10:00 PMSDSU 99%901k vol
- Sep 5, 10:30 PMSDSU 99%920k vol
- Sep 5, 11:00 PMSDSU 99%958k vol
- Sep 5, 11:30 PMSDSU 99%963k vol
- Sep 6, 12:00 AMSDSU 99%965k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 4:01 PM81°F (feels 82°)wind 6.1 g7precip 2%
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM80°F (feels 81°)wind 5.3 g6precip 3%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM79°F (feels 80°)wind 3.1 g4precip 4%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.