the yahngorithm
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Northern Arizona
Big Sky · FCS
7
@
Arizona
Big 12
35
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Arizona Stadium
Market spreadARIZ -32.8
Market total59.5
Model spreadARIZ -32.8
Edge0

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ARIZ -32.8
market ARIZ -32.8  ·  edge 0  ·  NAU -20.8 vs ARIZ +9.5 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ARIZ -33.1
market ARIZ -32.8  ·  edge +0.4  ·  NAU -20.9 vs ARIZ +9.5 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 6 books. Positive edge = model likes Arizona. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
NAU-20.8—-0.1-20.9
ARIZ+9.5—0+9.5

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

NAU expected
13.2
1.1 pts/poss
ARIZ expected
46
3.9 pts/poss
Model total
59.2
market 59.5 · 23.4 poss, average pace
Edge
-0.3
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadArizonathen BYUhurts ARIZ
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

NAUARIZ
ATS overall1-00-2
ATS at home–0-1
ATS on the road1-00-1
ATS as favorite–0-1
ATS as underdog1-00-1
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under0O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (ARIZ)Total
betmgm-32.5 -11859.5 -105
betonlineag-33.5 -11560 -105
betrivers-32.5 -11358.5 -108
bovada-33 -10559 -120
draftkings-33.5 -11259.5 -112
fanduel-32.5 -11059.5 -105
mybookieag–60 -110

Best ARIZ number -32.5 · best NAU number +33.5. Best over 58.5 · best under 60. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 8:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ARIZ's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 19.

Prediction market · Kalshi

NAU1%
ARIZ99%▲ 2
Implied lineARIZ -31.4
Volume245k
Open interest228k
Traded 24h218k

Kalshi's market prices ARIZ to win 99% — about ARIZ -31.4 vs the book's ARIZ -32.8. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.