the yahngorithm
← board
Central Michigan
Mid-American
7
@
New Mexico
Mountain West
38
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · FS1 · University Stadium (NM)
Market spreadUNM -10.5
Market total47.5
Model spreadUNM -17.6
Edge+7.1

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel UNM -17.6
market UNM -10.5  ·  edge +7.1 (home)  ·  CMU -15.1 vs UNM 0 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel UNM -17.8
market UNM -10.5  ·  edge +7.3 (home)  ·  CMU -14.8 vs UNM -0.2 + 3.2 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes New Mexico. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
CMU-15.1—+0.3-14.8
UNM0—-0.2-0.2

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.2 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

CMU expected
14.7
1.3 pts/poss
UNM expected
32.3
2.9 pts/poss
Model total
47.1
market 47.5 · 22.4 poss, average pace
Edge
-0.4
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelCentral Michigan1302 mi, -2hhurts CMU
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

CMUUNM
ATS overall0-22-0
ATS at home0-12-0
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite0-12-0
ATS as underdog0-1–
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss0-1–
W–L at home1-02-0
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under0O–2U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (UNM)Total
betmgm-11 -10847.5 -105
betonlineag-11 -11547 -110
betrivers-10.5 -10846.5 -118
betus-11 -11047.5 -110
bovada-11 -10547 -115
draftkings-10.5 -11547.5 -105
fanduel-10.5 -11047.5 -108
lowvig-11 -11147 -108
mybookieag-11 -11047.5 -110

Best UNM number -10.5 · best CMU number +11. Best over 46.5 · best under 47.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 8:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UNM's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 27.

Prediction market · Kalshi

CMU1%
UNM99%▲ 19.8
Implied lineUNM -31.4
Volume244k
Open interest222k
Traded 24h237k

Kalshi's market prices UNM to win 99% — about UNM -31.4 vs the book's UNM -10.5. 20.9-pt gap — the market rates UNM higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

PICKUNM -10.5spread · sp_plus · logged at +7.1 edgeWIN
model 17.6logged 10.5close 10.5CLV 0
travel

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.