the yahngorithm
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UNLV
Mountain West
21
@
Hawai'i
Mountain West
6
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · CW · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Market spreadUNLV -2.5
Market total55
Model spreadUNLV -3.7
Edge-1.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel UNLV -3.7
market UNLV -2.5  ·  edge -1.2  ·  UNLV +3.6 vs HAW -2.6 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel UNLV -2.8
market UNLV -2.5  ·  edge -0.3  ·  UNLV +3.1 vs HAW -2.5 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Hawai'i. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
UNLV+3.6—-0.5+3.1
HAW-2.6—+0.1-2.5

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UNLV expected
31
2.6 pts/poss
HAW expected
27.3
2.3 pts/poss
Model total
58.3
market 55 · 23.8 poss, average pace
Edge
+3.3
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelUNLV2753 mi, -3hhurts UNLV
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UNLVHAW
ATS overall1-2 33%1-2 33%
ATS at home0-11-1
ATS on the road1-10-1
ATS as favorite1-2 33%1-0
ATS as underdog–0-2
ATS after a win0-1–
ATS after a loss1-01-1
W–L at home0-11-1
W–L on the road1-10-1
Over / Under0O–3U1O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (HAW)Total
betmgm+2 -10855.5 -102
betonlineag+2 -11255 -105
betrivers+2.5 -10855 -112
betus+2 -11055 -110
bovada+2 -11054.5 -110
draftkings+2.5 -11554.5 -118
fanduel+2.5 -11255.5 -106
lowvig+2 -10855 -103
mybookieag+2 -11055 -110

Best HAW number +2.5 · best UNLV number -2. Best over 54.5 · best under 55.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 8:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from HAW's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 27.

Prediction market · Kalshi

UNLV99%
HAW1%▼ 42
Implied lineUNLV -31.4
Volume5261k
Open interest3532k
Traded 24h4713k

Kalshi's market prices HAW to win 1% — about UNLV -31.4 vs the book's UNLV -2.5. 28.9-pt gap — the market rates UNLV higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

PICKOver 58total · sp_plus · logged at +7.7 edgeLOSS
model 65.7logged 58close 55.5CLV -2.5
fast_pace

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.