the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Arizona State. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (ASU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -44 -108 | 52.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | -43.5 -115 | 53 -110 |
| betrivers | -44.5 -109 | 52.5 -109 |
| bovada | -45 -105 | 52.5 -110 |
| draftkings | -43.5 -115 | 52.5 -108 |
| fanduel | -43.5 -115 | 53.5 -106 |
| lowvig | -43.5 -115 | 53 -110 |
| mybookieag | -43.5 -110 | 53 -110 |
Best ASU number -43.5 · best MORG number +45. Best over 52.5 · best under 53.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 8:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ASU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 7:01 PM · dailyASU -43.5 (-45–-43.5)o/u 53 (52.5–53.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 5:01 PM · dailyASU -43.5 (-45–-43.5)o/u 52.8 (52.5–53.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 3:30 PM · dailyASU -43.5 (-45–-43.5)o/u 52.8 (52.5–53.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyASU -43.5 (-45–-43.5)o/u 52.8 (52.5–53.5)8 books
- Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyASU -43.5 (-45–-42.5)o/u 52.5 (52.5–53.5)8 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 19.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices ASU to win 99% — about ASU -31.4 vs the book's ASU -43.5. 12.1-pt gap — the market rates MORG higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 10:00 PMASU 99%228k vol
- Sep 5, 10:30 PMASU 99%231k vol
- Sep 5, 11:00 PMASU 99%231k vol
- Sep 5, 11:30 PMASU 99%232k vol
- Sep 6, 12:00 AMASU 99%232k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 4:01 PM96°Fwind 5.5 g12precip 2%
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM98°F (feels 96°)wind 6.3 g13precip 3%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM96°F (feels 94°)wind 8.1 g16precip 4%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.