the yahngorithm
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Mississippi Valley State
SWAC · FCS
0
@
Sacramento State
Mid-American
52
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ESPN+ · Hornet Stadium
Market spreadSAC -38.5
Market total55.5
Model spreadSAC -40.7
Edge+2.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel SAC -40.7
market SAC -38.5  ·  edge +2.2  ·  MVSU -61.6 vs SAC -23.4 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel SAC -42
market SAC -38.5  ·  edge +3.5 (home)  ·  MVSU -61.6 vs SAC -22.4 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 6 books. Positive edge = model likes Sacramento State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
MVSU-61.6—0-61.6
SAC-23.4—+1-22.4

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

MVSU expected
9
0.7 pts/poss
SAC expected
49.7
4 pts/poss
Model total
58.7
market 55.5 · 24.6 poss, average pace
Edge
+3.2
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

MVSUSAC
ATS overall0-11-2 33%
ATS at home–1-0
ATS on the road0-10-2
ATS as favorite–1-0
ATS as underdog0-10-2
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss–1-0
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-10-2
Over / Under0O–1U1O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (SAC)Total
betmgm-39 -10255.5 -112
betonlineag-38.5 -12555.5 -115
betrivers-38.5 -10556.5 -112
draftkings-38.5 -10256.5 -112
fanduel-38.5 -11055.5 -110
lowvig-38.5 -12555.5 -115
mybookieag–55.5 -110

Best SAC number -38.5 · best MVSU number +39. Best over 55.5 · best under 56.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 8:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from SAC's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 19.

Prediction market · Kalshi

MVSU1%
SAC99%▲ 1
Implied lineSAC -31.4
Volume900k
Open interest815k
Traded 24h855k

Kalshi's market prices SAC to win 99% — about SAC -31.4 vs the book's SAC -38.5. 7.1-pt gap — the market rates MVSU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.