the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes California. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (CAL) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | +2.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | +2.5 -104 | 53.5 -110 |
| betrivers | +2 -110 | 53 -113 |
| betus | +3 -120 | 53.5 -110 |
| bovada | +3 -115 | 53.5 -110 |
| draftkings | +2.5 -102 | 53.5 -112 |
| fanduel | +2.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 |
| lowvig | +2.5 +100 | 53.5 -108 |
| mybookieag | +2.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 |
Best CAL number +3 · best UCLA number -2. Best over 53 · best under 53.5. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 8:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from CAL's side.
Line movement
- Sep 5, 7:01 PM · dailyUCLA -2.5 (2–3)o/u 53.5 (53–53.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 5:01 PM · dailyUCLA -2.5 (2–3)o/u 53.5 (53–53.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 3:30 PM · dailyUCLA -2.5 (2–2.5)o/u 53.5 (53–53.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 2:00 PM · dailyUCLA -2.5 (2–2.5)o/u 53.5 (53–53.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 12:01 PM · dailyUCLA -2.5 (2–2.5)o/u 53.5 (53–53.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 27.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices CAL to win 1% — about UCLA -31.4 vs the book's UCLA -2.5. 28.9-pt gap — the market rates UCLA higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 5, 11:30 PMCAL 23%7758k vol
- Sep 6, 12:00 AMCAL 36%9216k vol
- Sep 6, 12:30 AMCAL 55%11427k vol
- Sep 6, 1:00 AMCAL 9%15398k vol
- Sep 6, 1:30 AMCAL 1%17536k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 5, 4:01 PM64°Fwind 4 g7precip 0%
- Sep 5, 6:00 AM68°F (feels 64°)wind 5.7 g11precip 0%
- Sep 4, 4:01 PM62°F (feels 61°)wind 4.2 g8precip 0%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.