the yahngorithm
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Western Kentucky
Conference USA
14
@
Nevada
Mountain West
49
Week 1 · 2026 · Final · CBSSN · Mackay Stadium
Market spreadNEV PK
Market total51.5
Model spreadWKU -1.9
Edge-1.9

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel WKU -1.9
market NEV PK  ·  edge -1.9  ·  WKU -7.3 vs NEV -11.7 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel WKU -2.1
market NEV PK  ·  edge -2.1  ·  WKU -6.5 vs NEV -11.7 + 3.1 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Nevada. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
WKU-7.3—+0.8-6.5
NEV-11.7—0-11.7

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.1 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

WKU expected
26.4
2.2 pts/poss
NEV expected
24.5
2.1 pts/poss
Model total
50.9
market 51.5 · 23.8 poss, average pace
Edge
-0.6
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelWestern Kentucky1808 mi, -2hhurts WKU
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

WKUNEV
ATS overall0-21-1
ATS at home–1-1
ATS on the road0-2–
ATS as favorite0-1–
ATS as underdog0-11-1
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss0-1–
W–L at home–1-1
W–L on the road0-2–
Over / Under2O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (NEV)Total
betmgm+1 -12051.5 -108
betonlineagPK -11051 -116
betrivers-0.5 -11352 -110
betusPK -11051 -110
bovada-1 -10551.5 -110
draftkings+1.5 -11851.5 -112
fanduel+1.5 -11551.5 -108
lowvigPK +10051 -115
mybookieag+1 -11051.5 -110

Best NEV number +1.5 · best WKU number +1. Best over 51 · best under 52. Latest snapshot Sep 5, 8:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from NEV's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 27.

Prediction market · Kalshi

WKU1%
NEV99%▲ 49.5
Implied lineNEV -31.4
Volume1545k
Open interest965k
Traded 24h1524k

Kalshi's market prices NEV to win 99% — about NEV -31.4 vs the book's NEV PK. 31.4-pt gap — the market rates NEV higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.