the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Washington. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (WASH) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -24 -108 | 51.5 -112 |
| betonlineag | -24 -110 | 52 -112 |
| betrivers | -23.5 -114 | 51.5 -110 |
| betus | -24 -105 | 52 -110 |
| bovada | -24 -110 | 51.5 -115 |
| draftkings | -23.5 -118 | 51.5 -112 |
| fanduel | -23.5 -118 | 51.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -24 -106 | 52 -110 |
| mybookieag | -24 -110 | 52 -110 |
Best WASH number -23.5 · best WSU number +24. Best over 51.5 · best under 52. Latest snapshot Sep 6, 2:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from WASH's side.
Line movement
- Sep 6, 2:00 PM · dailyWASH -24 (-24–-23.5)o/u 51.5 (51.5–52)9 books
- Sep 6, 11:01 AM · dailyWASH -24 (-24–-23.5)o/u 51.5 (51–52)9 books
- Sep 6, 8:00 AM · dailyWASH -24 (-24–-23.5)o/u 51.5 (50.5–51.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 11:30 PM · dailyWASH -23.5 (-24–-23)o/u 51 (50.5–51.5)9 books
- Sep 5, 7:01 PM · dailyWASH -23.5 (-24–-23)o/u 51 (50.5–51.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 31.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices WASH to win 99% — about WASH -31.4 vs the book's WASH -24. 7.4-pt gap — the market rates WASH higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 6, 4:30 PMWASH 96%7322k vol
- Sep 6, 5:01 PMWASH 96%7989k vol
- Sep 6, 5:30 PMWASH 95%9019k vol
- Sep 6, 6:01 PMWASH 96%11877k vol
- Sep 6, 6:30 PMWASH 99%15144k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 6, 4:00 PM70°F (feels 69°)wind 6.6 g8precip 0%
- Sep 6, 6:00 AM71°Fwind 6.4 g8precip 0%
- Sep 5, 4:01 PM72°F (feels 71°)wind 6.3 g8precip 1%
Showing the 3 most recent of 12 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.