the yahngorithm

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24Louisville

ACC

9Ole Miss

SEC

Week 1 · 2026 · Final · ABC · Nissan Stadium · neutral site

Market spreadMISS -6.5

Market total55

Model spreadMISS -5.4

Edge-1.1

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MISS -5.4

market MISS -6.5 · edge -1.1 · LOU +11.1 vs MISS +16.5 (neutral)

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MISS -6.2

market MISS -6.5 · edge -0.3 · LOU +10.5 vs MISS +16.8 + 0 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Ole Miss. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

LOU+11.1—-0.6+10.5

MISS+16.5—+0.3+16.8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 0 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

LOU expected

24.8

2 pts/poss

MISS expected

30.2

2.5 pts/poss

Model total

market 55 · 24.3 poss, average pace

Edge

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

LOUMISS

ATS overall2-00-2

ATS at home1-00-2

ATS on the road1-0–

ATS as favorite1-00-2

ATS as underdog1-0–

ATS after a win–0-1

ATS after a loss1-0–

W–L at home1-02-0

W–L on the road0-1–

Over / Under2O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (MISS)	Total
betmgm	-6.5 -112	55.5 -102
betonlineag	-6.5 -115	55 -108
betrivers	-6.5 -115	55 -110
betus	-6.5 -115	55 -110
bovada	-6.5 -120	55 -110
draftkings	-6.5 -115	55.5 -105
fanduel	-6.5 -118	55.5 -105
mybookieag	-6.5 -110	55 -110

Best over 55 · best under 55.5. Latest snapshot Sep 6, 5:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MISS's side.

Line movement

Sep 6, 5:01 PM · dailyMISS -6.5o/u 55 (55–55.5)8 books
Sep 6, 2:00 PM · dailyMISS -6.5 (-7–-6.5)o/u 55.3 (55–55.5)8 books
Sep 6, 11:01 AM · dailyMISS -6.5 (-7–-6.5)o/u 55 (54.5–55)8 books
Sep 6, 8:00 AM · dailyMISS -6.5 (-7–-6.5)o/u 55 (54.5–55.5)8 books
Sep 5, 11:30 PM · dailyMISS -6.5 (-7–-6.5)o/u 55 (54.5–55.5)8 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 32.

Prediction market · Kalshi

LOU33%

MISS67%▼ 3

Implied lineMISS -6.1

Volume29472k

Open interest12976k

Traded 24h26206k

Kalshi's market prices MISS to win 67% — about MISS -6.1 vs the book's MISS -6.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 6, 8:30 PMMISS 74%10983k vol
Sep 6, 9:01 PMMISS 76%13680k vol
Sep 6, 9:30 PMMISS 72%16988k vol
Sep 6, 10:00 PMMISS 98%21594k vol
Sep 6, 10:30 PMMISS 67%29472k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 6, 4:00 PM92°Fwind 10.7 g17precip 0%
Sep 6, 6:00 AM92°Fwind 9.8 g15precip 1%
Sep 5, 4:01 PM93°F (feels 92°)wind 9.6 g15precip 1%

Showing the 3 most recent of 12 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.