the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Notre Dame. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 0 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (ND) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -21.5 -105 | 46.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | -21 -115 | 46 -110 |
| betrivers | -21 -113 | 46 -113 |
| betus | -21 -115 | 46 -110 |
| bovada | -21.5 -105 | 46.5 +100 |
| draftkings | -21 -120 | 46.5 -112 |
| fanduel | -21.5 -102 | 46.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -21 -111 | 46 -108 |
| mybookieag | -21 -110 | 46.5 -110 |
Best ND number -21 · best WIS number +21.5. Best over 46 · best under 46.5. Latest snapshot Sep 6, 5:01 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ND's side.
Line movement
- Sep 6, 5:01 PM · dailyND -21 (-21.5–-21)o/u 46.5 (46–46.5)9 books
- Sep 6, 2:00 PM · dailyND -21 (-21.5–-21)o/u 46.5 (46–46.5)9 books
- Sep 6, 11:01 AM · dailyND -21 (-21.5–-20.5)o/u 46.5 (46–46.5)9 books
- Sep 6, 8:00 AM · dailyND -20.5 (-21–-20.5)o/u 46.5 (46–47)9 books
- Sep 5, 11:30 PM · dailyND -20.5 (-21–-20.5)o/u 46.5 (46.5–47)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 32.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices ND to win 99% — about ND -31.4 vs the book's ND -21. 10.4-pt gap — the market rates ND higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 6, 8:00 PMND 86%11322k vol
- Sep 6, 8:30 PMND 83%13362k vol
- Sep 6, 9:01 PMND 93%14713k vol
- Sep 6, 9:30 PMND 99%17536k vol
- Sep 6, 10:00 PMND 99%17669k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 6, 4:00 PM73°F (feels 75°)wind 2.9 g5precip 0%
- Sep 6, 6:00 AM73°F (feels 75°)wind 3.9 g7precip 0%
- Sep 5, 4:01 PM74°F (feels 78°)wind 3.5 g7precip 0%
Showing the 3 most recent of 12 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.