the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Florida State. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (FSU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | +3 -115 | 54.5 -112 |
| betonlineag | +2.5 +105 | 55 -105 |
| betrivers | +2.5 -109 | 55 -108 |
| betus | +3 -115 | 55 -110 |
| bovada | +3 -120 | 54.5 -110 |
| draftkings | +2.5 -102 | 54.5 -118 |
| fanduel | +2.5 -104 | 54.5 -115 |
| lowvig | +2.5 +109 | 55 -103 |
| mybookieag | +2.5 +100 | 55 -110 |
Best FSU number +3 · best SMU number -2.5. Best over 54.5 · best under 55. Latest snapshot Sep 7, 5:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from FSU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 7, 5:00 PM · dailySMU -2.5 (2.5–3)o/u 55 (54.5–55)9 books
- Sep 7, 2:00 PM · dailySMU -2.5 (2.5–3)o/u 54.5 (54.5–55)9 books
- Sep 7, 11:00 AM · dailySMU -2.5 (2.5–3)o/u 54.5 (54.5–55)9 books
- Sep 7, 8:00 AM · dailySMU -3 (2.5–3)o/u 53.59 books
- Sep 6, 11:01 PM · dailySMU -3 (2.5–3)o/u 53.5 (52.5–53.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 38.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices FSU to win 5% — about SMU -22.1 vs the book's SMU -2.5. 19.6-pt gap — the market rates SMU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 7, 9:30 PMFSU 26%20034k vol
- Sep 7, 10:00 PMFSU 23%21220k vol
- Sep 7, 10:30 PMFSU 38%24272k vol
- Sep 7, 11:00 PMFSU 18%29153k vol
- Sep 7, 11:30 PMFSU 5%36920k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 7, 4:01 PM89°F (feels 95°)wind 8.4 g14precip 7%
- Sep 7, 6:00 AM88°F (feels 94°)wind 6.5 g10precip 13%
- Sep 6, 4:00 PM81°F (feels 91°)wind 1.9 g4precip 33%
Showing the 3 most recent of 14 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.