the yahngorithm
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Florida A&M
SWAC · FCS
7
@
7Miami
ACC
77
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ACC Network · Hard Rock Stadium
Market spreadMIA -59.5
Market total65.5
Model spreadMIA -67.2
Edge+7.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MIA -67.2
market MIA -59.5  ·  edge +7.7 (home)  ·  FAMU -41.4 vs MIA +23.3 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MIA -67.3
market MIA -59.5  ·  edge +7.8 (home)  ·  FAMU -41.5 vs MIA +23.1 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 5 books. Positive edge = model likes Miami. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
FAMU-41.4—0-41.5
MIA+23.3+0.3-0.4+23.1

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

FAMU expected
7
0.6 pts/poss
MIA expected
39
3.4 pts/poss
Model total
46
market 65.5 · 22.7 poss, average pace
Edge
-19.5
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

steamMiami1.5 pts in 3hhelps MIA
The consensus spread made a fast, synchronized move toward this team across the books — a sign real money came in on them quickly.
short weekMiami6d resthurts MIA
Fewer than 6 days since this team's previous game. Less practice and recovery — a small negative, more so if they also traveled.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

FAMUMIA
ATS overall0-12-0
ATS at home–1-0
ATS on the road0-11-0
ATS as favorite–2-0
ATS as underdog0-1–
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-11-0
Over / Under1O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (MIA)Total
betmgm-59.5 -11065.5 -120
betrivers-59.5 -10965.5 -113
bovada-59.5 -11065 -125
draftkings-59.5 -11266.5 -108
fanduel-59.5 -10866.5 -105

Best over 65 · best under 66.5. Latest snapshot Sep 10, 5:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MIA's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 8.

Prediction market · Kalshi

FAMU1%
MIA99%
Implied lineMIA -31.4
Volume4633k
Open interest4626k
Traded 24h2780k

Kalshi's market prices MIA to win 99% — about MIA -31.4 vs the book's MIA -59.5. 28.1-pt gap — the market rates FAMU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 6 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.