the yahngorithm

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Villanova

Patriot · FCS

24Louisville

ACC

Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ACC Network · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

Market spreadLOU -38.5

Market total56.5

Model spreadLOU -32.8

Edge-5.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel LOU -32.8

market LOU -38.5 · edge -5.7 (away) · VILL -21.7 vs LOU +8.6 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel LOU -33

market LOU -38.5 · edge -5.5 (away) · VILL -21.9 vs LOU +8.4 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Louisville. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

VILL-21.7—-0.1-21.9

LOU+8.6+0.1-0.3+8.4

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

VILL expected

10.4

0.9 pts/poss

LOU expected

43.2

3.6 pts/poss

Model total

53.7

market 56.5 · 24.2 poss, average pace

Edge

-2.8

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

short weekLouisville5d resthurts LOU

Fewer than 6 days since this team's previous game. Less practice and recovery — a small negative, more so if they also traveled.

lookaheadLouisvillethen SMUhurts LOU

Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

bad spotLouisvilleshort week + lookaheadhurts LOU

Two or more situational negatives stacked on this team (e.g. a long trip on a short week, or a letdown spot after a long trip). Backtests ~57% ATS on the fade — a decision aid, not a lock. Take the points against this team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

VILLLOU

ATS overall0-12-0

ATS at home–1-0

ATS on the road0-11-0

ATS as favorite–1-0

ATS as underdog0-11-0

ATS after a win––

ATS after a loss–1-0

W–L at home–1-0

W–L on the road0-10-1

Over / Under1O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (LOU)	Total
betmgm	-37.5 -112	56.5 -110
betonlineag	-38.5 -105	56.5 -110
betrivers	-38 -108	57.5 -115
bovada	-38.5 -110	56.5 -115
draftkings	-38.5 -108	56.5 -112
fanduel	-38.5 -110	56.5 -108
lowvig	-38.5 -105	56.5 -110

Best LOU number -37.5 · best VILL number +38.5. Best over 56.5 · best under 57.5. Latest snapshot Sep 11, 5:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from LOU's side.

Line movement

Sep 11, 5:00 PM · dailyLOU -38.5 (-38.5–-37.5)o/u 56.5 (56.5–57.5)7 books
Sep 11, 2:00 PM · dailyLOU -38 (-38.5–-37.5)o/u 57 (56.5–57.5)7 books
Sep 11, 11:00 AM · dailyLOU -37.5 (-38.5–-36.5)o/u 56.5 (56.5–57)7 books
Sep 11, 8:00 AM · dailyLOU -36.5 (-37–-36.5)o/u 56.5 (56.5–57)7 books
Sep 10, 11:00 PM · dailyLOU -36.5 (-37–-36.5)o/u 56.5 (56–56.5)7 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 14.

Prediction market · Kalshi

VILL1%

LOU99%▲ 1

Implied lineLOU -31.4

Volume5452k

Open interest4401k

Traded 24h4931k

Kalshi's market prices LOU to win 99% — about LOU -31.4 vs the book's LOU -38.5. 7.1-pt gap — the market rates VILL higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 11, 7:01 PMLOU 98%4928k vol
Sep 11, 7:30 PMLOU 99%5319k vol
Sep 11, 8:00 PMLOU 99%5421k vol
Sep 11, 8:30 PMLOU 99%5441k vol
Sep 11, 9:00 PMLOU 99%5452k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 11, 4:01 PM79°F (feels 86°)wind 2.6 g7precip 3%
Sep 11, 6:00 AM77°F (feels 86°)wind 2.7 g4precip 9%
Sep 10, 4:01 PM81°F (feels 90°)wind 1.8 g5precip 12%

Showing the 3 most recent of 8 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.