the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Virginia. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (UVA) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -45.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -46.5 -110 | 56 -115 |
| betrivers | -46 -110 | 55.5 -109 |
| bovada | -46 -115 | 55.5 -115 |
| draftkings | -46.5 -112 | 56.5 -105 |
| fanduel | -46.5 -110 | 56.5 -106 |
| lowvig | -46.5 -110 | 56 -115 |
Best UVA number -45.5 · best NORF number +46.5. Best over 55.5 · best under 56.5. Latest snapshot Sep 11, 5:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UVA's side.
Line movement
- Sep 11, 5:00 PM · dailyUVA -46.5 (-46.5–-45.5)o/u 56 (55.5–56.5)7 books
- Sep 11, 2:00 PM · dailyUVA -46.5 (-47.5–-45.5)o/u 55.5 (55.5–56)7 books
- Sep 11, 11:00 AM · dailyUVA -46.5 (-47.5–-45.5)o/u 55.5 (55.5–56)7 books
- Sep 11, 8:00 AM · dailyUVA -45.5 (-45.5–-45)o/u 54.5 (54.5–55)7 books
- Sep 10, 11:00 PM · dailyUVA -45.5 (-45.5–-44.5)o/u 54.5 (54.5–55.5)7 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 14.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices UVA to win 99% — about UVA -31.4 vs the book's UVA -46.5. 15.1-pt gap — the market rates NORF higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 11, 7:01 PMUVA 99%3184k vol
- Sep 11, 7:30 PMUVA 99%3202k vol
- Sep 11, 8:00 PMUVA 99%3207k vol
- Sep 11, 8:30 PMUVA 99%3208k vol
- Sep 11, 9:00 PMUVA 99%3209k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM78°F (feels 82°)wind 5.1 g9precip 18%
- Sep 11, 6:00 AM80°F (feels 83°)wind 8.5 g12precip 25%
- Sep 10, 4:01 PM77°F (feels 85°)wind 2.2 g7precip 17%
Showing the 3 most recent of 8 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.