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Richmond
Patriot · FCS
0
@
NC State
ACC
73
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPNU · Carter-Finley Stadium
Market spread—
Market total—
Model spreadNCSU -22
Edge—

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel NCSU -22
 ·  RICH -21.6 vs NCSU -2.1 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel NCSU -23
 ·  RICH -21.7 vs NCSU -1.3 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 0 books. Positive edge = model likes NC State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
RICH-21.6—0-21.7
NCSU-2.1+0.3+0.6-1.3

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

RICH expected
14.5
1.2 pts/poss
NCSU expected
36.5
3.1 pts/poss
Model total
51
no market total · 23.2 poss, average pace
Edge
–

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadNC Statethen Vanderbilthurts NCSU
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

RICHNCSU
ATS overall–0-1
ATS at home––
ATS on the road–0-1
ATS as favorite––
ATS as underdog–0-1
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under–0O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Line movement

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 8 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.