the yahngorithm
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25Missouri
SEC
38
@
Kansas
Big 12
21
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · FOX · Memorial Stadium
Market spreadMIZ -4
Market total51.5
Model spreadMIZ -2.9
Edge+1.1

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MIZ -2.9
market MIZ -4  ·  edge +1.1  ·  MIZ +11.5 vs KU +6.1 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MIZ -2.6
market MIZ -4  ·  edge +1.4  ·  MIZ +11.2 vs KU +5.9 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Kansas. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
MIZ+11.5-0.3—+11.2
KU+6.1+0.3-0.4+5.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

MIZ expected
26.8
2.4 pts/poss
KU expected
23.9
2.1 pts/poss
Model total
50.7
market 51.5 · 22.6 poss, average pace
Edge
-0.8
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

reverse line moveKansasbook 1.5/30h, 11166865 volhurts KU
Within the last day or so, the book's number moved toward this team while the Kalshi prediction market (real money, no vig) didn't move with it, on a market with real volume. The line drifting this way looks like public money, not a real shift — the sharp market isn't backing it. Lean the other side.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

MIZKU
ATS overall1-11-1
ATS at home0-11-1
ATS on the road1-0–
ATS as favorite1-11-0
ATS as underdog–0-1
ATS after a win1-00-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-01-1
W–L on the road1-0–
Over / Under2O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (KU)Total
betmgm+4.5 -11251.5 -110
betonlineag+4 -11052 -110
betrivers+5 -11251 -114
betus+4 -11052 -110
bovada+4.5 -11052 -110
draftkings+4 -10551.5 -118
fanduel+4.5 -11251.5 -110
lowvig+4 -10152 -108
mybookieag+4 -11051.5 -110

Best KU number +5 · best MIZ number -4. Best over 51 · best under 52. Latest snapshot Sep 11, 5:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from KU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 14.

Prediction market · Kalshi

MIZ98%
KU2%▼ 31.3
Implied lineMIZ -27.7
Volume11167k
Open interest6605k
Traded 24h10230k

Kalshi's market prices KU to win 2% — about MIZ -27.7 vs the book's MIZ -4. 23.7-pt gap — the market rates MIZ higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 8 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.