the yahngorithm
← board
Cal Poly
Big Sky · FCS
20
@
San José State
Mountain West
30
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · MW+ · CEFCU Stadium
Market spreadSJSU -21.5
Market total58.5
Model spreadSJSU -22
Edge+0.5

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel SJSU -22
market SJSU -21.5  ·  edge +0.5  ·  CP -33.7 vs SJSU -14.2 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel SJSU -22.3
market SJSU -21.5  ·  edge +0.8  ·  CP -33.8 vs SJSU -14.2 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes San José State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
CP-33.7—0-33.8
SJSU-14.2+0.3-0.2-14.2

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

CP expected
17.2
1.4 pts/poss
SJSU expected
39.2
3.3 pts/poss
Model total
56.3
market 58.5 · 24.1 poss, average pace
Edge
-2.2
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

letdownSan José Statebeat Eastern Michiganhurts SJSU
Won an emotional game last week (rivalry or within 3 SP+ pts) and this week's opponent is 10+ SP+ pts weaker. Emotional hangover — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

CPSJSU
ATS overall1-02-1 67%
ATS at home–0-1
ATS on the road1-02-0
ATS as favorite–0-1
ATS as underdog1-02-0
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss–1-0
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-11-1
Over / Under0O–1U1O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (SJSU)Total
betmgm-21.5 -11058.5 -110
betonlineag-21.5 -10559 -105
betrivers-21.5 -11358 -114
bovada-21.5 -10558.5 -105
draftkings-21.5 -11058.5 -112
fanduel-21.5 -11458.5 -105
lowvig-21.5 -10559 -105
mybookieag-21.5 -11058.5 -110

Best over 58 · best under 59. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 8:00 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from SJSU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 23.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.