the yahngorithm
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East Tennessee State
Southern · FCS
3
@
North Carolina
ACC
35
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ACC Network · Kenan Stadium
Market spread—
Market total—
Model spreadUNC -35.2
Edge—

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel UNC -35.2
 ·  ETSU -28.3 vs UNC +4.4 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel UNC -35.3
 ·  ETSU -28.3 vs UNC +4.4 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 0 books. Positive edge = model likes North Carolina. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
ETSU-28.3—+0.1-28.3
UNC+4.4+0.3-0.2+4.4

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

ETSU expected
10
0.9 pts/poss
UNC expected
45.2
4.1 pts/poss
Model total
55.1
no market total · 22.2 poss, average pace
Edge
–

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadNorth Carolinathen Clemsonhurts UNC
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.
letdownNorth Carolinabeat TCUhurts UNC
Won an emotional game last week (rivalry or within 3 SP+ pts) and this week's opponent is 10+ SP+ pts weaker. Emotional hangover — fade this team / take the points.
bad spotNorth Carolinalookahead + letdownhurts UNC
Two or more situational negatives stacked on this team (e.g. a long trip on a short week, or a letdown spot after a long trip). Backtests ~57% ATS on the fade — a decision aid, not a lock. Take the points against this team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

ETSUUNC
ATS overall–1-0
ATS at home––
ATS on the road–1-0
ATS as favorite––
ATS as underdog–1-0
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-11-0
Over / Under–0O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Line movement

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Prediction market · Kalshi

ETSU1%
UNC99%▲ 1
Implied lineUNC -31.4
Volume588k
Open interest566k
Traded 24h434k

Kalshi's market prices UNC to win 99% — about UNC -31.4 Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.