the yahngorithm
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Old Dominion
Sun Belt
21
@
Virginia Tech
ACC
44
Week 2 · 2026 · Final · CW · Lane Stadium
Market spreadVT -18.5
Market total47.5
Model spreadVT -21.1
Edge+2.6

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel VT -21.1
market VT -18.5  ·  edge +2.6 (home)  ·  ODU -7.6 vs VT +11 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel VT -22
market VT -18.5  ·  edge +3.5 (home)  ·  ODU -8 vs VT +11.2 + 2.9 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Virginia Tech. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
ODU-7.6+0.3-0.6-8
VT+11+0.30+11.2

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

ODU expected
15.5
1.3 pts/poss
VT expected
36.6
3 pts/poss
Model total
52
market 47.5 · 24.5 poss, average pace
Edge
+4.5
model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadVirginia Techthen Marylandhurts VT
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

ODUVT
ATS overall0-22-0
ATS at home0-12-0
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite0-12-0
ATS as underdog0-1–
ATS after a win0-11-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-02-0
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under1O–1U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (VT)Total
betmgm-18 -10847.5 -110
betonlineag-18 -10747.5 -115
betrivers-19 -10947.5 -113
betus-18 -11048 -110
bovada-17.5 -11547.5 -110
draftkings-17.5 -11547.5 -115
fanduel-18.5 -10547.5 -110
lowvig-18 -10347.5 -114
mybookieag-19 -11047.5 -110

Best VT number -17.5 · best ODU number +19. Best over 47.5 · best under 48. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 11:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from VT's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.

Prediction market · Kalshi

ODU1%
VT99%▲ 9.9
Implied lineVT -31.4
Volume935k
Open interest691k
Traded 24h916k

Kalshi's market prices VT to win 99% — about VT -31.4 vs the book's VT -18.5. 12.9-pt gap — the market rates VT higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.