the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Purdue. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (PUR) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | +3 -118 | 51.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | +3 -119 | 51.5 -110 |
| betrivers | +3 -118 | 50.5 -114 |
| betus | +3 -120 | 51.5 -110 |
| bovada | +3 -120 | 51.5 -105 |
| draftkings | +2.5 -102 | 51.5 -108 |
| fanduel | +2.5 -102 | 51.5 -110 |
| lowvig | +3 -112 | 51.5 -108 |
| mybookieag | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 |
Best PUR number +3 · best WAKE number -2.5. Best over 50.5 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 11:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from PUR's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyWAKE -3 (2.5–3)o/u 51 (50.5–51.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyWAKE -3 (2.5–3)o/u 50.5 (49.5–50.5)9 books
- Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyWAKE -3 (2.5–3)o/u 50 (49.5–50.5)9 books
- Sep 11, 8:00 PM · dailyWAKE -3 (2.5–3)o/u 50 (49.5–50.5)9 books
- Sep 11, 5:00 PM · dailyWAKE -3 (2.5–3)o/u 50 (49.5–50.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices PUR to win 57% — about PUR -2.5 vs the book's WAKE -3. 5.5-pt gap — the market rates PUR higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 12:30 PMPUR 23%783k vol
- Sep 12, 1:01 PMPUR 25%931k vol
- Sep 12, 1:30 PMPUR 13%1346k vol
- Sep 12, 2:00 PMPUR 70%2171k vol
- Sep 12, 2:30 PMPUR 57%3406k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM78°F (feels 84°)wind 6.4 g8precip 6%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM74°F (feels 80°)wind 5.9 g9precip 6%
- Sep 11, 6:00 AM77°F (feels 82°)wind 7.5 g15precip 6%
Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.