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Howard

MEAC · FCS

6Indiana

Big Ten

Week 2 · 2026 · Final · BTN · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)

Market spreadIU -58

Market total67.5

Model spreadIU -66.3

Edge+8.3

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel IU -66.3

market IU -58 · edge +8.3 (home) · HOW -41.1 vs IU +22.7 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel IU -66

market IU -58 · edge +8 (home) · HOW -41.2 vs IU +22.1 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Indiana. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

HOW-41.1—-0.1-41.2

IU+22.7+0.3-0.8+22.1

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

HOW expected

0.6 pts/poss

IU expected

3.7 pts/poss

Model total

market 67.5 · 22.2 poss, average pace

Edge

-19.5

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

HOWIU

ATS overall1-00-2

ATS at home–0-2

ATS on the road1-0–

ATS as favorite–0-2

ATS as underdog1-0–

ATS after a win–0-1

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–2-0

W–L on the road0-1–

Over / Under0O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (IU)	Total
betmgm	-58 -110	68.5 -110
betonlineag	-58.5 -118	68 -110
betrivers	-58.5 -113	67.5 -110
bovada	-57.5 -120	67.5 -110
draftkings	-57.5 -112	67.5 -110
fanduel	-58.5 -110	67.5 -110
lowvig	-58.5 -118	68 -110

Best IU number -57.5 · best HOW number +58.5. Best over 67.5 · best under 68.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 11:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from IU's side.

Line movement

Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyIU -58 (-58.5–-56)o/u 67.5 (66.5–68.5)7 books
Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyIU -57.5 (-58.5–-56.5)o/u 66.5 (65.5–67.5)7 books
Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyIU -56.5 (-57.5–-56.5)o/u 65.5 (64.5–66)6 books
Sep 11, 8:00 PM · dailyIU -56.5 (-57.5–-56.5)o/u 65.5 (64.5–66)6 books
Sep 11, 5:00 PM · dailyIU -56.5o/u 65.5 (64.5–65.5)5 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.

Prediction market · Kalshi

HOW1%

IU99%

Implied lineIU -31.4

Volume1200k

Open interest1195k

Traded 24h863k

Kalshi's market prices IU to win 99% — about IU -31.4 vs the book's IU -58. 26.6-pt gap — the market rates HOW higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 12, 12:00 PMIU 99%1194k vol
Sep 12, 12:30 PMIU 99%1197k vol
Sep 12, 1:01 PMIU 99%1199k vol
Sep 12, 1:30 PMIU 99%1199k vol
Sep 12, 2:00 PMIU 99%1200k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 12, 6:00 AM76°F (feels 82°)wind 6.9 g11precip 18%
Sep 11, 4:01 PM74°F (feels 80°)wind 6.7 g13precip 14%
Sep 11, 6:00 AM78°F (feels 84°)wind 5.5 g9precip 15%

Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.