the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Temple. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (TEM) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | +24 -110 | 49.5 -112 |
| betonlineag | +24 -107 | 49.5 -113 |
| betrivers | +24 -113 | 51 -109 |
| betus | +24 -110 | 49.5 -115 |
| bovada | +24.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 |
| draftkings | +24.5 -118 | 49.5 -112 |
| fanduel | +24.5 -120 | 50.5 -105 |
| lowvig | +24 -103 | 49.5 -112 |
| mybookieag | +24.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 |
Best TEM number +24.5 · best PSU number -24. Best over 49.5 · best under 51. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 11:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TEM's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyPSU -24 (23.5–24.5)o/u 50.5 (49.5–51)9 books
- Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyPSU -24 (23.5–24.5)o/u 51 (50.5–51.5)9 books
- Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyPSU -24 (23.5–24.5)o/u 51 (50.5–51.5)9 books
- Sep 11, 8:00 PM · dailyPSU -24 (23.5–24)o/u 51 (50.5–51.5)9 books
- Sep 11, 5:00 PM · dailyPSU -24 (23.5–24)o/u 51 (50.5–51)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices TEM to win 1% — about PSU -31.4 vs the book's PSU -24. 7.4-pt gap — the market rates PSU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 12:30 PMTEM 4%1320k vol
- Sep 12, 1:01 PMTEM 2%1582k vol
- Sep 12, 1:30 PMTEM 1%1721k vol
- Sep 12, 2:00 PMTEM 1%1737k vol
- Sep 12, 2:30 PMTEM 1%1750k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM76°F (feels 81°)wind 5.4 g9precip 1%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM78°F (feels 84°)wind 6 g9precip 1%
- Sep 11, 6:00 AM80°F (feels 82°)wind 7 g10precip 2%
Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.