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App State

Sun Belt

East Carolina

American Athletic

Week 2 · 2026 · Final · ESPNU · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium

Market spreadECU -6.5

Market total55.5

Model spreadECU -1.6

Edge-4.9

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ECU -1.6

market ECU -6.5 · edge -4.9 (away) · APP -8.6 vs ECU -9.5 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ECU -1.1

market ECU -6.5 · edge -5.4 (away) · APP -8.3 vs ECU -10 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes East Carolina. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

APP-8.6+0.3+0.1-8.3

ECU-9.5-0.3-0.2-10

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

APP expected

2.2 pts/poss

ECU expected

28.6

2.4 pts/poss

Model total

55.6

market 55.5 · 24.1 poss, average pace

Edge

+0.1

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

revengeEast Carolinalost by 2helps ECU

Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

APPECU

ATS overall2-00-2

ATS at home1-00-1

ATS on the road1-00-1

ATS as favorite1-00-1

ATS as underdog1-00-1

ATS after a win1-0–

ATS after a loss–0-1

W–L at home1-00-1

W–L on the road1-00-1

Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (ECU)	Total
betmgm	-6.5 -112	55.5 -110
betonlineag	-6.5 -104	55.5 -115
betrivers	-6.5 -114	56.5 -110
betus	-6 -110	55.5 -115
bovada	-6 -110	55.5 -115
draftkings	-6.5 -108	55.5 -110
fanduel	-6.5 -108	55.5 -110
lowvig	-6.5 -101	55.5 -114
mybookieag	-6.5 -110	56 -110

Best ECU number -6 · best APP number +6.5. Best over 55.5 · best under 56.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 11:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ECU's side.

Line movement

Sep 12, 10:01 AM · dailyECU -6.5 (-6.5–-6)o/u 55.5 (55–56.5)9 books
Sep 12, 8:00 AM · dailyECU -6.5o/u 56 (55–56.5)9 books
Sep 11, 11:00 PM · dailyECU -6.5o/u 55.5 (55.5–56.5)9 books
Sep 11, 8:00 PM · dailyECU -6.5o/u 56.59 books
Sep 11, 5:00 PM · dailyECU -6.5o/u 56.59 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 18.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 12, 6:00 AM89°F (feels 96°)wind 5.3 g8precip 13%
Sep 11, 4:01 PM90°F (feels 99°)wind 3.6 g6precip 8%
Sep 11, 6:00 AM89°F (feels 97°)wind 5.6 g7precip 12%

Showing the 3 most recent of 9 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.